Mike Clancy

Mike Clancy
enjoying the moment - and the coffee

Monday, March 29, 2010

Philippines commentary

March 30, 2010

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst

It is now only two months to election day in the Philippines. Already ninety people have died in pre-election violence and with so much at stake and so many guns, this may well prove to be the most violent on record. While the administration continues to claim that it is working to ensure a peaceful transfer of power, the level of distrust is high; one thing appears certain – President Arroyo will do whatever it takes to ensure her immunity from prosecution once she steps down.

Manila, Philippines. It is often said that a week is a long time in politics and with six weeks to election day in the Philippines anything can happen and possibly will. The magnitude of the organisational problem facing the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) was discussed in some detail last month and will not be rehearsed again other than to note that the Philippine media continues to be full of commentary relating to the ill-prepared state of the COMELEC to mount the first ever fully automated election in Filipino history – if such it turns out to be.

Comelec Chair, former Justice Melo, continues to express confidence that all will be well on election day although many believe his pronouncements lack conviction. One worrisome sign has been the rapid deterioration in the country's power supply; the prolonged dry weather has led to rolling brownouts throughout the country, most seriously in Mindanao where many areas have been without power for 8-10 hours today. Given the level of distrust of government, some read a conspiracy theory into this; the administration is deliberately engineering a situation where lack of power come election day would force a failure of the election. It remains a conspiracy theory and cannot be ruled out but a more likely explanation is simple ineptitude. This is not a government that is big on forward planning.

Already it is becoming a violent election. Indeed, one national newspaper has issued a dire warning that this coming poll could be the most violent on record. Looking at election-related incidents since 1992 (when President Fidel Ramos won the presidency) the lowest number of people killed in electoral violence was 45 in the 1998 poll while the highest (so far) was in the 2004 contest (148 deaths). In that election Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo was proclaimed the winner in circumstances that left many people bewildered – not least the other two prime candidates Fernando Poe Jr. and Raul Roco, both of which have since died. In the days after the election, those "in the know" (meaning sources within Malacañang Palace) privately conceded that Poe garnered the most votes – but after all "it's all just a game and we fought better." Tell that to the more than 40 per cent of the people living in abject poverty.

The 2004 poll also took line honours in terms of the highest number of people wounded – 261 in that electoral season. In the 2007 senatorial contest, 121 lost their lives and 176 were wounded. The same newspaper went on to claim " ...the three elections under GMA's watch (in 2001, 2004 and 2007) killed 307 and wounded 598, for an average of about 102 killed and about 199 wounded per election. The three previous elections [before she came to power] totalled only 170 killed and 336 wounded, averaging about 56 killed and 112 wounded per election. The rise (almost double) in casualties and wounded in elections held during GMA's presidency is an ominous portent for the May 10 polls."

Indeed, 90 people have already been killed in pre-election violence including the 57 murdered in Mindanao last December. That was the worst case of murder on record. One organization, Volunteers Against Crime and Corruption (VACC) has counted at least 117 private armies that have been formed by politicians to protect their turf on election day. With so many guns and so much at stake, there is cause for concern.

The situation is extremely volatile although much of the political manoeuvring is hidden from public view. Outwardly at least, administration spokespersons are quick to reassure the public that the government is preparing for an orderly transition of power. Behind the scenes though much appears to be going on to ensure that the outcome will not result in President Arroyo being called to account for her excesses. She wants legal immunity from prosecution; what none of us know for sure is just what game plan she intends to use to get it.

One concern on which we have commented previously is her determination to rule the country until the last possible moment. She will not go into caretaker mode. Although there is a constitutional ban on so-called "midnight appointments" whereby no president can make an executive appointment within 90 days of leaving office (other than a temporary emergency appointment) it appears likely that she will ignore this protocol and appoint both a new AFP chief of staff as well as a new Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. The likelihood of this happening has just ratcheted up a notch with the Supreme Court itself handing down an opinion (by eight votes to seven) that the ban on such appointments did not apply to the Court. Or is the intention to provoke a constitutional crisis by deliberately thumbing convention thereby providing another avenue for the proclamation of martial law? More conspiracies. Remember, the Philippines thrives on them.

As of the time of writing, the front runner among the presidentiables remains "Noynoy" Aquino, scion of a leading political family who, if the polls are any guide, appears to enjoy a seven point lead over his closest rival, property tycoon and Senator, Manny Villar. Acording to the recent poll. Aquino is the preferred candidate nominated by 36 per cent of those polled while Villar is favoured by 29 per cent. Former President Estrada is back in the race and running third at 18 per cent. Villar is throwing money at campaign advertising but it appears that many people see him as being too close to the present administration for comfort. Indeed the administration's candidate Gilberto Tedoro is trailing in the polls at only 7 per cent. What happens if Estrada pulls out? That is the question many are asking. It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that Estrada has struck a secret deal with one of the other candidates and may withdraw at the last minute for some "consideration," throwing his weight behind one or other of the other prime contenders. Of course, the deal may not, as yet, have been consummated since the value of his support in monetary terms will grow, the closer it gets to election day.

In almost any other society, this would be unthinkable but in the Philippines, anything can and probably will happen, especially where money and power are involved. Certainly Filipino society is changing but that change is glacial and the nexus between money and political power is as brazen as it ever was. A salutary reminder of this fact was the recently published report of Hong Kong-based Political and Economic Risk Consultancy (PERC) showing its latest country risk perception rankings for Asia. Out of 16 countries polled, Philippines came third from last in terms of perceived risk – only Thailand and India scored lower. Even Indonesia, which improved its ranking this year fared better than the Philippines whose score and rank both took a turn for the worse. Thailand's risk perception was conditioned by the health of its King rather than inefficiency and corruption which were the predominant factors in the case of both Indonesia and the Philippines.

Our next letter will appear two weeks ahead of the election and the following report two weeks after that. We will not have much longer to wait to determine whether the Philippines has reached its nadir or whether the slide will continue. Like most people, we will hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

Sunday, March 28, 2010

Taiwan, China – a hard lesson to learn

March 2010

Commentary

The approval rating of Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou has fallen once again and unless there is a dramatic turnaround his chances of winning re-election are almost zero. While the administration would like to blame the international environment for its woes, that is not the case. The government has not yet learned that Taiwan's democratic consciousness has grown under the eight years of DPP rule and a return to the autocratic ways of the past is not an option for a government seeking to stay in power. China too needs to take note; if it pushes too hard, it may end up being the loser.

Taipei, Taiwan. Four legislative by-elections held at the end of February, saw the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) suffer yet another humiliating defeat. In Hualien County, on Taiwan's east coast the KMT barely managed to keep control; it lost heavily in Taoyuan and Hsinchu counties which, traditionally, it held by wide margins. Chiayi County also went to the DPP but that was expected. This is the fourth time that the present administration has suffered recent electoral defeat and after a decisive win in the national elections barely two years ago.

On March 22 2008, then presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou scored a decisive win over his DPP counterpart, Frank Hsieh, returning the presidency and the administration into KMT hands after eight years of DPP rule. In that election Ma and his party garnered almost 60 per cent of the popular vote. Expectations were high that the incoming administration – which promised it would learn from the mistakes of the past – would work more closely with the business sector (which has tended always to be pro-KMT) and would be less confrontational towards China.

Those high expectations have been confounded and that early victory appears (so far at least) to represent the zenith of public support for the Ma presidency. Since then, approval ratings have continued to slide. The latest opinion polls, show a massive drop in confidence by the public at large. One such poll taken by the Chinese-language magazine Global View gives President Ma an approval rating of only 23.8 per cent – down by almost one per cent from the previous month. More to the point, his disapproval rating rose by 3.3 percentage points to an alarming 66 per cent. A similar poll conducted at the same time by the United Daily News gave a similar result. That poll gave him an approval rating of 27 per cent and a dissatisfaction rating of 53 per cent.

While the accuracy of the numbers can be debated, one thing is clear – there has been a massive erosion of public support in the government and dissatisfaction continues to grow. Unless arrested, his chances of winning a second term look remote indeed.

The KMT, and its president in particular, would like to blame "external factors" for the level of public dissatisfaction and to a point, they have a case. While the storm clouds were gathering early in 2008, the full fury of the global economic downturn had not yet been felt – nor indeed was its severity on the global economy foreseen at that time; many thought it to be primarily a US problem without thinking through the ramifications for the rest of the world: When America sneezes, Asia catches a cold.

But the people of Taiwan have no intention of letting the government off the hook that easily. Indeed, if that were the sole factor in the present abysmal ratings, with the economy now back in growth mode, the slide in popularity should now be reversing. It is not.

First and foremost, is the China factor. The antagonism shown towards China by the DPP did not sit easily with the ordinary Taiwanese who were quite comfortable with a retention of the status quo across the Taiwan Strait. The DPP government by contrast was downright provocative and confrontational with China; the proverbial "mouse that roared." But if the DPP was provocative, Ma and his government have proven themselves totally sycophantic. Very early in the piece and in an effort perhaps to mend the damaged fences with Beijing, instead of coming across as "pro-China" it took the fatal extra step of becoming an implementer of Beijing's policies on the island of Taiwan. Mr. Ma abrogated the role of president in favour of that of prefect.

Perhaps the most sinister aspect of this sea-change came with the arrest and incarceration of Taiwan's former (DPP) president, President Chen Shui-bian. Was he "guilty as charged"? Perhaps so, perhaps not. But that is not entirely the point. The more serious aspect is the manner in which the judiciary was manipulated into ensuring that the court returned a guilty verdict – not only on the president but also his wife (who has been a paraplegic for the past quarter century as the result of being run over by a truck in the nineteen-eighties (and run over three times by the same truck). At that time, Taiwan was still under martial law and Chen was the leader of the illegal opposition. Nobody was ever charged in relation to that incident.

There may have been a few skeletons in the DPP closet, and the current administration has done a lot to bring them into the open; but if the DPP has a closet of skeletons, the KMT has sufficient to fill an entire cemetery. Many commentators believe that the treatment meted out to Chen, and particularly the disrespect shown him and the former first family, is what might have been expected from a Chinese court but not a Taiwanese one. It led to the natural question as to whether Ma was acting as a surrogate for Beijing in this episode.

A similar disturbing sign came about with the visit to Taiwan in late 2008 of the highest ranking PRC official ever to visit Taiwan. While children were given PRC flags and ordered to line the streets to welcome their guest, those caught carrying Taiwanese flags were arrested. The bizarre nature of this event was covered internationally at the time. Taiwanese in Taiwan were arrested for carrying the Taiwanese flag. Bizarre indeed.

But it is not only in regard to his China policies that Ma has been found wanting. His initial off-hand approach to the devastation caused last year by Typhoon Morakot left many people gasping. Despite more than 500 people losing their lives, response mechanisms were slow to get into gear and the only instruction from President Ma was to the fire brigade to send life boats – an entirely inappropriate response for the hilly areas affected by mudslides of such magnitude as to annihilate entire villages. Offers of foreign aid were rejected. When President Ma finally visited the area after several days of procrastination, he appeared angry at the interruption to his schedule and expressed his annoyance on television when talking to villagers who had lost everything except their lives.

In this respect, the government may have learned something. When a magnitude 6.4 earthquake struck southern Taiwan in the early hours of March 4 this year, the response was immediate. Happily, no lives were lost although 64 people were reported injured mostly from falling objects, and power supplies to the area were disrupted. Perhaps because the epicentre was close to Siaolin Village which had been wiped out by Morakot, Taiwan's military organized a relief effort in under 20 minutes and Ma visited the area the same day. The attitudinal shift was noted and the government won praise from local residents for its prompt actions.

The administration may have been slow to learn but it does appear to be learning to heed public opinion. Whatever the deficiencies of the eight years of DPP rule, it did underpin the democratic development of the national consciousness; President Ma is having a painful time adjusting to this new reality and he needs to mend his autocratic ways. Most notably this must come about in his engagement with China since he is now paying the price of getting out too far ahead of his constituents. China too must take note. If the leaders in Beijing push too hard they risk further backlash and no matter the rhetoric, they do not want an armed confrontation over Taiwan any more than the rest of the world.

Democracy can be a powerful weapon and perhaps the people of Taiwan are not only teaching their president but delivering a lesson to Beijing as well. And this is the strength of the democratic system.


Sunday, March 21, 2010

Easter—some personal thoughts

In the Christian tradition, there are two great festivals—those of Christmas and Easter. Whereas Christmas is always celebrated on the same day (December 25), the date of the Easter festival is variable depending on the lunar calendar and it follows the Jewish Passover.

Christians believe that Jesus Christ is the son of God and Christmas (at least in Christian terms) celebrates his birth which was foretold in Hebrew scriptures. Christmas is held in the depth of winter close to the Winter Solstice. The origins of holding a festival at this time had much to do with the prospect of marking the passing of the depth of winter and it was a natural time to celebrate.

Easter is somewhat complex in its manner of celebration since it involves both suffering and death as well as a return to life. On the one hand it is a remembrance of Christ's painful death on the Roman Cross which is remembered on Good Friday but then on the Sunday following, Jesus "rose from the dead" or came back to life—but transformed. To his disciples or followers, this was the clearest demonstration of the immortality of the soul.

The simplest way of looking at Easter might be to consider it as a time of rebirth. Perhaps it was a happy coincidence that the Passover coincides with the northern Spring as this is the season where nature itself comes back to life. Indeed the word Easter comes from the Saxon word Eostre—the goddess of Spring—whose feast was held on the Vernal Equinox, or the time the sun passes into the Northern Hemisphere on its annual cycle.

The forty days prior to Easter are known as "Lent" or the "Lenten period." Traditionally it is a time of fasting and frugal living which perhaps, following on from the feasting and indulgence of the Christmas period, was as good for the heart as it was for the soul. The period of Lent is meant to be a time of reflection where we can think about our life and its direction. Basically, it provides us with an opportunity for self-examination and redirecting our own lives as we prepare for the year ahead.

It is also traditional at Easter time to give out Easter eggs as a symbol of new life. Early eggs were ordinary eggs that were decorated in bright colours, especially red, but nowadays, and particularly in European countries, they are often made of chocolate. Easter eggs are normally given out on Easter Sunday.

Two other foods associated with Easter are Hot Cross Buns and Simnal Cake. Hot Cross Buns are spiced fruit buns sold in Holy Week and to be eaten on Good Friday with the cross on the bun standing as a symbol of the crucifixion. Early buns were made from the consecrated dough used to make communion wafers but today this tradition too has become commercialised with Hot Cross Buns being promoted and sold throughout the weeks leading up to Easter. What was once meant to provide a special "treat" after the fasting of the Lenten period, has now become promoted as a special indulgence to be enjoyed throughout the period.

Simnal cake has not yet been commercialised and in some places, its tradition is dying out which is a pity. This rich fruit cake is usually eaten on Easter Day and in Medieval times female servants would bake this cake and take it to their mothers on "Mothering Sunday" which, in the Church calendar, is the time to honour mothers and is the fourth Sunday during the period of Lent. Later it became more popular as a special treat to mark the end of the 40 days of Lent.

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Copyright, plagiarism and the creative commons


This article comes from Module 2 of my course books Working with Words and Effective Writing. If you would like a copy of the original just contact Mike at thecreativegenie@gmail.com

Copyright

In Australia as in many other countries, original works are automatically covered by copyright provided they meet certain conditions, most particularly that they are original and the result of effort. This means that you have no right to copy, sell or (particularly, in the web context) distribute the work of another person without their permission. You do not have to apply to copyright your work any longer, it is granted automatically. However this does not necessarily give you protection for the use of your work outside of Australia.

The Macquarie Dictionary (Macquarie University 2006) provides the following definition of copyright:

The exclusive legal right granted by law for a certain term of years, to make and dispose of copies of, and otherwise to control a literary, musical, dramatic or artistic work.

Oxford (Oxford University Press 2010) gives the following definition:

The exclusive legal right, given to the originator or their assignee for a fixed number of years, to publish, perform, film, or record literary, artistic, or musical material, and to authorize others to do the same.

Plagiarism

Similarly, plagiarism is taking the work or idea of someone else and passing it off as one's own. There are situations where you can use other people's work but you must always credit it back to the author and not seek to misrepresent it as your own work.

In this course, we have drawn heavily on the work of other people but this is always presented in the form of 'further reading' whereby the source is provided (cited) and the work (aside from formatting) is presented in its original form without embellishment or change. Works cited must always be listed in a bibliography or list of references.   

The Creative Commons

In recent years there has been a concerted effort to extend the knowledge community by making some works—with the author's or creator's permission—available to others without payment. This system is known as the "Creative Commons."

Creative Commons (CC) is administered by an internationally based non-profit organisation devoted to expanding the range of creative works available for others to build upon legally and to share. Creative Commons achieves this goal through the provision of free, easy-to-use, standardized licenses that allow creators to communicate which rights they reserve and which rights they waive.

The six basic licenses are as follows. What works for others also works for you as an author.

Attribution

  • This license allows for redistribution, commercial and non-commercial, as long as it is passed along unchanged and in whole, with credit to you or the author/creator.
Attribution, share alike

  • This license lets others remix, tweak, and build upon your work non-commercially, and although their new works must also acknowledge you and be non-commercial, they don't have to license their derivative works on the same terms. Equally if work you want to use has this type of license you may do the same
Attribution, no derivatives

  • This license lets others remix, tweak, and build upon your work non-commercially, as long as they credit you and license their new creations under the identical terms. Others can download and redistribute your work just like the by-nc-nd license, but they can also translate, make remixes, and produce new stories based on your work. All new work based on yours will carry the same license, so any derivatives will also be non-commercial in nature.
Attribution, non-commercial

  • This license lets others remix, tweak, and build upon your work non-commercially, and although their new works must also acknowledge you and be non-commercial, they don't have to license their derivative works on the same terms. Equally if work you want to use has this type of license you may do the same.
Attribution, non commercial, share alike

  • This license lets others remix, tweak, and build upon your work non-commercially, as long as they credit you and license their new creations under the identical terms. Others can download and redistribute your work just like the by-nc-nd license, but they can also translate, make remixes, and produce new stories based on your work. All new work based on yours will carry the same license, so any derivatives will also be non-commercial in nature.
Attribution, non commercial, no derivatives

  • This license is the most restrictive of the six main licenses that allow redistribution. This license is often called the 'free advertising' license because it allows others to download your works and share them with others as long as they mention you and link back to you, but they can't change them in any way or use them commercially.

Who owns your work?

Before we leave the subject of intellectual property, we should clear up any misunderstanding authors have about ownership of their work. Just because you write it, does not mean you own the intellectual property rights to it—although you may do so.

Authors generally own their own work and license it to a publisher for printing but the exact conditions will be spelled out in the contract. Basically, if the work you are writing is part of your job, ownership and all rights will more probably be vested in the organisation on behalf of which you are working. In some situations, you may have some rights—but only if these are specified in the contract. Sometimes as an example, a publisher will own the rights to the material you write in printed form but may allow you to retain rights to electronic formats. This should be specified clearly in any contract you sign.

In this regard, ownership of written works is similar to ownership rights in other media. For example, if you go to a photographic studio to have a family portrait professionally taken, do you own the photographs you have paid for? Technically you do not. You own the photographs you paid for but ownership of the negatives (or their digital equivalent) generally remains with the photographer since he or she took the photographs.

Things to remember about intellectual property

The prime consideration is the need to provide proper attribution for the work of others that you use in your writing and especially if the writing is to be shown to other people. You should be aware that once it leaves your hands—either as a letter, email, article for publication, assignment for a supervisor or even a blog on the web, if you have not attributed your idea or thought, you open yourself to a charge of plagiarism. This is considered a very serious matter in the world of writing and even broader composition generally (music and photography especially).

Copyright protects people's original works and if you include whole passages of text from another person or freely distribute (whether or not for profit) you can infringe a person's copyright. In this information age, this applies often to music and photographs that are downloaded from the web. Just because it is on the web does not mean you can freely use it.

On the other hand, some authors, especially in the educational sphere are making their works freely available. Such works are in the public domain but often with conditionality attached. This is known as the 'creative commons' and you should only use the material in keeping with the license conditions attached. At the very least this means attribution of the source.

Take the time to look into the concept of "public domain". Just because something is freely available to you to read or to look at, does not make it part of the public domain. This is a common error made by many people.

Merriam-Webster offers the following definition of public domain in this context:

the realm embracing property rights that belong to the community at large, are unprotected by copyright or patent, and are subject to appropriation by anyone

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Our changing climate


Why Australians should be concerned

By

Michael Clancy


A Galaxy poll published on 23 November 2009 suggested that while Australians favoured a carbon pollution reduction scheme, the margin of those in favour was a narrow one and the results divided broadly along lines of political support, with ALP supporters strongly in favour (63%) vs only 42% of Coalition supporters. More worrisome was the fact that only 44% of those polled thought the scheme would be a good thing. Not surprisingly the Australian Chamber of Commerce weighed in on the side of delay arguing that the emission scheme should be deferred until a global agreement is reached.
Clearly the Australian Government has much to do to convince the general public of the consequences of delay. If it was an asteroid about to hit the Earth would we be so complacent?
Climate experts and world leaders are meeting in Copenhagen over the next two weeks in a marathon meeting intended to hammer out a new deal to combat the world's changing climate. With the United States and China now willing to take the lead, progress is expected, but likely to fall well short of a new binding agreement that would make it mandatory for countries to curb – and eventually roll back – their carbon emissions.

Australia, with an emissions trading scheme in place, had hoped to play a leading and formative role at the meeting but with the EMS scheme shelved until next year, that role has been denied us and instead we will be among those countries beating our collective breasts and pledging support but without actually doing anything – yet.

Should we have risen to the challenge and put ourselves to the forefront of efforts to combat global warming? Or were we right to wait for a consensus to emerge before climbing on the bandwagon? Certainly, to move to the forefront would have been a courageous step for a nation not exactly known for its trailblazing in international diplomacy.

I would argue that it is imperative that Australia gains a seat at the top table when it comes to climate change negotiations but in order to do so we have to establish our credentials. So why should Australians be concerned? Hopefully this article will provide some food for thought.

The world's climate IS changing and at an increasingly alarming rate. Worst case predictions of a decade ago are now becoming best case scenarios. Already we are faced with higher temperatures, lower crop yields, rising sea levels and coastal inundations. Heat stress, especially among the elderly, is on the increase and threatening to reverse gains made over the last century especially in prolonging longevity with an enhanced quality of life.

According to the World Meteorological Organization, the level of atmospheric gases responsible for global warming were at an all-time high in 2008 and will be higher still in 2009 (von Bulow 2009). Atmospheric carbon and other minor "greenhouse gases", largely a product of increased energy use and – in the developing world, through forest burning to clear land for agriculture – are mainly responsible. The build-up is escalating and we may be less than 20 years away from the "tipping point", at which time change becomes irreversible. Once that happens, it is "game over."

But unlike the Hollywood movies of late where the world unites to save itself from an imminent asteroid impact, global warming is incremental. We know it is happening but because life seems normal, most of us want to wait and see. The trouble is with the lag effect. If we mend our ways now, it may still be a hundred years before the climate settles back to what it was.

That may be the most catastrophic decision humankind has ever taken. Sir Nicholas Stern, prime author of the 2006 review undertaken for the UK Government that is widely regarded as the most authoritative recent study from a global perspective, stated that the scientific evidence was now overwhelming. He summed it up by stating there is still time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, if we take strong action now (Stern 2006).

The costs of taking action are far less than the costs of inaction. Again quoting from the findings of the Stern Review, for the world as a whole, an investment of one per cent of GDP per year is required to combat the worst effects of climate change. Failure to do so runs the risk of having global GDP 20 per cent lower than it otherwise would be. Indeed, such an outcome would be the largest market failure ever seen (ibid).


Australia faces a hotter future

Australia is already facing a hotter and drier future and as a country where 85 per cent of the population live along the coastline we will be dealing with the consequences of rising sea levels for the next few centuries at least. Yet, and as the Department of Climate Change points out in a recent report (Department of Climate Change 2009, 1), our development so far has been largely based on the assumption that the sea levels of 1788 would remain unchanged. Patently that is not going to be the case. The shape of Australia will alter as a result.

Current best guesses of the international scientific community suggest a global sea-level rise of between 1.1 and 1.2 metres (relative to 1990 levels) by the end of this century. The Australian Government's Department of Climate Change has estimated that up to $63 billion worth of residential buildings are currently at risk.

And to sceptics who point to the fact that these are only "best guesses" it is worth pointing out again that best guesses in the past have been overtaken by events time and again.

Australia's agriculture industry too will be severely affected; crop production, pasture growth and the livestock industry will all be challenged by the changing climate. The frequency of drought will increase – becoming 20 per cent more common by 2030 over much of Australia (Department of Climate Change 2009, 2).


Asia will suffer more than most

But it is to our north, in Asia, that the effects will be even more severe. The Asian landmass and its island archipelagos, is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change because of its long coastlines, concentration of population in coastal and deltaic regions and (mostly) tropical climate.

Southeast Asia alone is home to 563 million people and its population is rising by almost two per cent annually compared to a global average of only 1.4 per cent (Asian Development Bank (ADB) 2009, 1). Using 2010 as the base year, at a two per cent annual population growth rate, Southeast Asia's population will double by 2045. Looking at Asia as a whole, population pressures are strongest in the Philippines, Bangladesh, India and Indonesia. Figure 1 provides best and worst case scenarios computed by the United Nations for Australia and selected countries of Asia.

Despite the dynamic growth of recent years throughout much of Asia, it is a region still beset by poverty. More than 50 per cent of Asia's population continues to live below the US$2 a day poverty line and with 27 per cent below the $1.20 a day extreme poverty level.


Asian agriculture is on a slippery slope

But while population continues to increase, Asian agriculture appears to be on a path of long-term decline as a result of climate change (ADB 2009, 2). Three commodities, rice, wheat and maize account for 95 per cent of crop production in Asia. And while the various modelling scenarios commonly used to predict impact of climate change differ in their outcomes by degree, they all point to a downward trend.

Rice accounts for 35 per cent of the crop in China, 82 per cent in Southeast Asia and around 46% in South Asia. India fares worst of all. The best case outcome from three common models predicts a decline in rice production of around seven per cent in India while the worst case scenario predicts a more than 20 per cent decline. For Southeast Asia, predictions range from seven per cent to 13 per cent decline. Wheat and maize show similar patterns.

It is not hard to see where this argument takes us. Daily per capita food availability is almost certain to fall. Infant mortality and child malnutrition is likely to increase.

The recent study published by the Asian Development Bank of Asian agriculture (cited above) predicts childhood malnutrition levels (which are directly linked to calorie availability) will increase dramatically to between nine and 11 million children. This is in addition to the 65 million children projected to remain malnourished by 2050 even under current climate conditions.

Warmer and drier conditions coupled to an increased frequency of what are termed "extreme weather events" will reduce the agricultural GDP of all countries of Asia but particularly in South and Southeast Asia. These countries are likely to experience a loss in agricultural GDP, worsening trade conditions and an increase, rather than a decrease, in poverty – including extreme poverty.

Climate change and migration patterns

Migration patterns within Asia and the Pacific are already considerable and likely to be exacerbated by the changing climate as land becomes less fertile and as deltaic and low-lying coastal areas become inundated either through rising sea levels or exacerbated extreme weather events including storm surges and cyclonic activity. Another recent (draft) report (ADB 2009, 3) on the implications of climate change on migration patterns suggests that by 2010, the number of environmentally displaced people at the global level could reach 50 million (citing UNFCC 2007); that by 2050 refugees due to climate change could reach 250 million (citing Christian Aid in Bierman and Boas 2007). The Stern Review estimate that by the same time, permanently displaced "climate refugees" could reach 250 million.

The ADB migration study points out that for those with the economic capacity to do so, some of this migration will be voluntary and will represent a "coping strategy." For others, particularly those at the lower end of the social pyramid, it will be involuntary and forced by flooding or other environmental disaster.

To this we would add a third factor, that of conflict. To study this aspect we will refer to a 2007 study by London-based International Alert "A Climate of Conflict" that looked at the Implications of climate change for conflict situations (International Alert 2007).

This study identifies three levels of conflict risk and two levels of exposure to climate change. The outcome for selected countries in the Asia Pacific region considering both variables are mapped into Figure 2 below to create a two-dimensional vulnerability matrix. A third dimension can also be added in the form of those countries likely to experience a heightened degree of extreme weather events (italicized) and which both amplifies the threat as well as adding to the degree of variability in some locations.

Many countries near to Australia are those in greatest peril. These include Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Pakistan and the Philippines. Unless recognized and remedial action taken, political instability and conflict situations can only be exacerbated by climate change and the heightened competition for ever more scarce resources. If things are bad now, they will likely be even worse in years to come.

Voluntary migration will be both internal (mostly to major urban centres) or overseas to more stable countries – Australia will be regarded as a prime destination for many. Environment induced Involuntary migration can be expected to be largely internal – from one region to another as individuals make a decision to relocate and who, in doing so, will often be reliant on friends and families elsewhere. This will likely be a slow drip feed from one area to another or (as has been the case with refugees from Myanmar relocating to Thailand) across porous borders.

The third factor is the one to be concerned about. Conflict situations when they occur, often flare up unexpectedly and, very often, there is no safe haven. Ever since the first wave of boat people, mostly ethnic Chinese from Viet Nam escaping the aftermath of the war in the late 1970s, groups of people have been taking to the sea in large numbers to claim asylum elsewhere. Thirty years ago it was from Viet Nam, now it is from Sri Lanka.

Without wishing to appear alarmist, what we have seen so far may be only the tip of the iceberg, and in years to come this may be the only iceberg we will ever see. It is not an inevitability but there is a possibility of this happening and it has to be factored into Australia's strategic response.

Figure 2: The risk matrix 
(table deleted from post)



As good as it gets


Since Donald Horne first coined the phrase, almost half a century ago, Australia has indeed been the "lucky country". However, this may be as good as it gets. While in the global scheme of things as a small nation our overall carbon footprint (or loosely speaking, the amount of energy we consume that releases greenhouse gases into the atmosphere) is not that great, as individuals we are among the highest carbon consumers in the world and on a par with the United States and Canada (leaving aside the oil-producing countries who have voracious energy appetites).

A recently published report (Herwtich and Peters, 2009) shows that for 2001, Australians each contributed 20.6 tCO2e to atmospheric carbon, of which 82 per cent was from domestic use. In Asia, only Hong Kong residents had a higher footprint of 29.0 tCO2e but only 17 per cent of that came from domestic sources.

The contribution of New Zealanders was the next highest at around half the Australian rate (11.4 tCO2e), about the same as Taiwan. By comparison the footprint of people in Indonesia and the Philippines was only 1.9 tCO2e.

This knowledge allows us to recolour our regional map (see box above). We can look through two filters; one in terms of total vulnerability (from extreme risk to moderate risk) and the other in terms of carbon footprints. The result is a telling picture.

It is in our own self-interest that we become part of the global solution. Some short-term pain may be necessary in order to reap long-term gain. It is not all downhill, or need not be, provided we recognize the problem and shift to a greener future. There are no quick fixes or easy answers but the debate cannot be held hostage to self-interest groups. All we need to do is look at the map and recognize that we need to change our ways.




Bibliography

ADB. Addressing Climate Change in the Asia and Pacific Region | Building Climate Resilience in the Agriculture Sector. Technical Assistance Report No. TA 6479-REG, Manila: Asian Development Bank (ADB), 2009.
——— (2). Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific. Draft report prepared by the University of Adelaide, Flinders University, University of Waikato, Asian Development Bank, Manila: Asian Development Bank (ADB), 2009, 44.
———(3). The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia: A Regional Review. Mandaluyong : Asian Development Bank (ADB), 2009, 256.
Department of Climate Change. "Agriculture." Australian Government, Department of Climate Change. 12 October 2009. http://www.climatechange.gov.au/climate-change/impacts/agriculture.aspx (accessed December 4, 2009).
——— (2). Climate Change Risks to Australian Coast: A first pass national assessment. Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia, Department of Climate Change, 2009, 172.
Edgar G. Hertwich, Glen P. Peters. "Carbon Footprint of Nations: A Global Trade-Linked Analysis." Environ. Sci. Technol., May 2009: 6414-6420.
International Alert. A Climate of Conflict | The links between climate change, peace and war. International Alert, London: International Alert, 2007, 48.
Stern, Sir Nicolas. The Economics of Climate Change. London, Cambridge (UK): H.M. Treasury, 2006, 692.
United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision. 2008. http://esa.un.org/unpp (accessed December 4, 2009).
von Bulow, Michael. "Greenhouse gases reach record highs." Associated Press (AP), 24 December 2009.

Contact information

Dr. Michael (Mike) Clancy

michaelclancy@rocketmail.com; thecreativegenie@gmail.com
Tel: 0420750171

Dr. Mike Clancy is a freelance writer and editor who specializes in scientific, climate change and labour issues. A physical scientist from Adelaide University, he spent 15 years with the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs before moving to Asia where he ran his own consultancy business for more than 20 years.

He is now living with his family in Southeast Queensland.


Annex: Crop scenarios

Data taken from Table 10, (ADB 2, 2009) which reports outcomes for three models: CSIRO, Hadley, and NCAR, assuming no CO2 fertlization.





Friday, March 5, 2010

Food for thought


Some reminiscing on a misspent youth

By Michael Clancy

One of the great delights about living in Australia is the choice we have when it comes to what to eat and where to eat it. From five-star degustation to beach barbie we have it all on tap. The country abounds in fresh produce from tropical and sub-tropical fruit such as the mango, pineapple and banana to foods produced in more temperate climates such as European root vegetables. Thanks to our multicultural heritage, we are now able to access an equally large variety of non-traditional foods either at home or by eating out thanks to immigrants from Europe, the Middle East and Asia who have introduced new customs and new foods into a once stodgidly British Australia. When it comes to food, we have never had it so good and the signs suggest we might never have it as good again.

I grew up in the nineteen fifties and sixties and at that time, Australia was a very different place. Those were the days of Bob Menzies and the "White Australia" policy. Most migrants to Australia during that period – my own family included – came from Britain or another European country. The Australian diet was pretty much identical to that of England at that time and it was plain food – but of course still of exceptional quality and heavily oriented towards red meat which was plentiful. We used to go to a wholesale butcher known as the Lazy Lamb on Adelaide's Main South Road up on Flagstaff Hill where a full half carcass of lamb, cut to however you wanted it, would cost us $2. Eggs and lamb chops for breakfast was the order of the day. Chicken was something you ate at Christmas.

There were of course some uniquely Australian dishes in those days that are still with us, the ubiquitous pie and pastie – not entirely Australian of course but only Australia elevated these items into national icons. And of course there was the Chiko roll. The Chiko roll was something else again. Inspired by the Chinese spring roll, it was similar to a pastie in terms of ingredients but deep fried in a thick pastry wrap rather than baked. Because of this, it was mostly sold in fish-and-chip shops. With a thick pastry coating it had little of the delicacy of a Chinese or Vietnamese spring roll and would have been a real challenge to eat with chopsticks and a dipping sauce. No, Like the pie and the pasty, the hardy Chiko roll was "fast food" designed to be eaten on the go.

Actually, the origin of the Chiko roll is of some interest. Many believe it to be a Chinese dish gone wrong or one that was adapted to suit hearty Australian tastes. Actually, it was the invention of a Bendigo boilermaker back in 1951 who wanted a snack he could eat with one hand at football matches while swilling a beer in his other hand. I see it is still available but I have not yet plucked up the courage to have one.

These were the days before we had the likes of McDonalds, KFC or Hungry Jacks (Burger King to non-Australians). In those innocent times, fast food was obtained from the milk bar, corner store or local burger joint where hamburgers were made before your eyes and topped with bacon, mushrooms, tomatoes and the owner's very own sauce. My favourite burger was made by a Greek grocer on O'Connell Street in North Adelaide who ran his burger counter as a sideline but who, probably – judging by its popularity – was the mainstay of his business since it attracted all-comers at any hour of the day or night.

And if we wanted a sweet treat we ordered a Vanilla Slice or a Chester Square, the latter being, I believe, uniquely South Australian as I have never seen it anywhere else. Vanilla Slices consist of a thick vanilla custard sandwiched between two layers of puff pastry and topped with white icing. A Chester Square is similar but different with the custard replaced by what always looked like a floury bread pudding and topped with pink icing. Both of them were calorific hell but we did not care. They were just the thing we needed after an afternoon on the footie field.

And for a chocolate fix we had the choice of a Polly waffle or a Violet Crumble bar – both then made by a Mr. Hoadley. Sadly, while I was sleeping, Hoadleys sold out to Rowntree and Rowntree sold out to Nestlé. The Polly waffle went the way of the dinosaur – or as Nestlé say on their website, consumers preferred the Kit-Kat bar over the Australian icon. Personally, I feel this is like saying that consumers prefer avocados to Packham pears. To my mind, a bit of clever marketing would have introduced the delight of the Pollywaffle to a new generation of Aussies and beyond. Sadly, my grandson will never have the delight of biting through that crunchy chocolate coating to find the marshmallow that lay below. More to the point – nor will I!

Perhaps its demise has something to do with the notoriety the Pollywaffle gained during an Australian tour of the Rolling Stones back in the sixties when British singer Marian Faithfull, touring with the group, found an entirely new use for it – or so went the urban legend at the time. Sales skyrocketed after that story went around.

Perhaps the survival of the Violet Crumble bar is because it has a more honoured place in history. To preserve the freshness of the honeycomb filling, Hoadleys needed a new kind of airtight wrapper. A French company, La Cellophane, invented the metallic cellophane wrapper specifically for the Violet Crumble bar. With such a pedigree, how could it be allowed to disappear?

We did not eat out much in those days and when we did it was usually in the dining room of the Glenelg Hotel. It was there one New Years Eve that I was introduced to my first glass of wine. This was at a time before the wine industry had taken off and if offered a glass of wine, the usual choice would be between a sweet and a dry sherry. To my recollection, there was only one wine on the menu that night (but as I seem to recall from my murky past) around five different beers); it went by the name of "Barossa Pearl". That too has now disappeared and with the enormous variety we have today, it is no great loss. Wine drinking did not really take off until the middle of the nineteen-sixties. At that time I was living in one of the university colleges and enjoying the student life. We quickly discovered that drinking beer was too expensive and that it was much cheaper to drink sherry and port which we could buy by the flagon. So began my profligate downfall and lifetime affection for the grape that my initial encounter at the Glenelg Hotel had sought to destroy.

When we wanted to be really daring we had a choice of three restaurants in Adelaide (there were probably more, but we only knew of three). There was Mario's Pizza Bar in Hindley Street, the Balkan Grill just across the road or another, also on Hindley Street, the name of which is long forgotten but which served the most sumptuous smorgasbord (the term "buffet" only became popular later – probably because it has 40% less letters in the word).

Mario's Pizza Bar was open 24 hours a day. It was really no more than a small corner shop with a central bar area surrounded by stools and a dumb waiter which was used to send the orders down to the kitchen below; moments later the dumb waiter would return with one of Mario's pizzas. They were all the same price – 30 cents – and resembled the pan pizza popular today but usually topped with Mario's special Russian Salad. That particular style of pizza I have never found anywhere else thankfully. It was only in 1969 that a second pizza house opened in Rundle Street – now Rundle Mall – and which served thin crust pizzas with all the toppings we have today but which when we first tried one we were all convinced was "not a real pizza." How times have changed.

To head off to Mario's pizza bar, especially at night, was considered a daring and dangerous thing. "Who knows?" we thought. "Mario might be a mafia leader and down below was not just a kitchen but a whole den of iniquity." We never did get "down below" nor indeed discover how, aside from the dumb waiter, how it might be accessed. That only fuelled our imagination. Poor Mario. I sometimes wonder what happened to him after Australia discovered the thin and crispy?

And I almost forgot, the fourth eating establishment: the pie cart on King William Street which served the famous South Australian floater: a meat pie in a dish covered in a mushy pea soup. Thanks Sam for reminding me of that. After a hard night drinking with my college batch mates, the pie cart was the alternative to one of Mario's pizzas. Thank goodness that in those days there was no breathalyser. We lived dangerously – or thought we did.

Then there were the Chinese restaurants that were ubiquitous even at that time. The Chinese were among the early settlers of Australia, many coming to work the goldfields in the nineteenth century before federation. Mostly Cantonese speakers, many of them stayed and became integrated into Australian society and at least allowed Australians of that era a glimpse of a cuisine different from the one they were used to having.

Of course by today's standards, the menu was rather limited. Spring rolls, chicken with cashew nuts, sweet and sour pork and fried rice. Those dishes figured on most menus and were always considered a "safe" choice. During my postgraduate years at Adelaide University I spent three months a year at Mildura sending high altitude balloons aloft with our scientific apparatus designed to detect inter-stellar X-rays. We lived at the Mildura Grand Hotel and ate in the dining room. The menu never changed. When we could take it no longer we decided one evening to strike out and try Chinese food.

There was one such restaurant in Mildura and none of us had eaten Chinese before. So we walked up the road, found the place and ordered our spring rolls, chicken with cashew nuts, sweet and sour pork and fried rice. The order was taken by a lanky Melbournian lady of middling years who, from memory, had a cigarette to one side of her mouth. If my memory is failing and she was not smoking, then she certainly looked as though she should have been. Behind the counter at the cash register was a striking young lady of obvious oriental ancestry. Slim, a pretty round face with piercing eyes and long flowing black hair that was tied in a pony tail; she was the stuff of dreams. "Why oh why could we not be served by her" we all silently asked each other, only our glances to one another and to the till betraying our thoughts. Only later did I come to realise that in Chinese restaurants it was always a member of the family that guarded the cash register.

Our beers came and we waited for our meal. There was a shout from the kitchen and for a moment our Chinese lass disappeared from view. She returned and began walking to our table. Our faces lit up noticeably. Would we be invited into the back to a game of mah-jong we thought or maybe to try the opium pipe? "Honourable western gentlemen, please be so kind as to accompany me for an evening of pleasure" we thought. No it was not to be. She reached our table, began to speak and in the broadest strine accent asked us "Will youze lot be awantin' chips with your dinner?"

Our illusions were shattered. The orient was no longer inscrutable.