The deal is done

Taipei, July 24^th 2010: The much talked about Economic Framework Cooperation Agreement (ECFA) between Taiwan and China is now a fait accompli. The agreement was signed June 29 during the fifth round of cross-straits negotiations held in Chongqing, China between Taiwan's semi-official Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) and its Chinese counterpart, the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS). A copyright protection agreement establishing a mechanism to reinforce anti-piracy laws was signed at the same time although an investment protection pact and a proposed cross-straits medical cooperation pact have been held over until the sixth round of talks scheduled for later in the year.

Only following signature were the contents of the ECFA revealed and Taiwan's KMT-dominated legislature will only be able to accept or reject the agreement in toto. The government has ruled out any opportunity to review individual clauses. The status of the accord has already come into question as in law it is an agreement signed between two private organizations. Critics have pointed out that this may cause some problems if the agreement is lodged with the World Trade Organization (WTO) (which Taiwan has said it would do) and could be used by China to further erode Taiwan's status by claiming it to be a domestic agreement rather than an FTA, but this has been brushed aside by supporters as a mere technicality. The agreement does provide for establishment of a cross-straits economic commission to be responsible for follow-up negotiations and overall supervision of the agreement and this may go some way towards mitigating concern over this aspect.

In many respects the ECFA follows the Closer Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) signed between China and Hong Kong back in 2003. However, one key clause — that pertaining to safeguards, contained in the CEPA, appears to be missing from this latest document. Article 9 of the CEPA states that either side can temporarily suspend tariff reductions in the event that "the implementation of the CEPA causes a sharp increase in the import of [certain] products originating from the other side which has caused or threatened to cause serious injury to the affected side's domestic industry." There is no such clause in the ECFA and therefore no feasible means for Taiwan to suspend imports from China that threaten domestic industries. Taiwan's only recourse would be to the termination clause whereby either side could give written notice of termination of the entire agreement. Only after such notice had been given would Taiwan and China hold negotiations within 30 days to resolve differences and if the parties failed to reach consensus, termination would occur after 180 days. The problem is that such termination would be seen as a political act with dramatic consequences; the reality is that Taiwan must rely on China's goodwill not to undertake dumping or other actions that would damage Taiwan's manufacturing base.

Supporters of the pact are placing much emphasis on the "early harvest" provisions which will be implemented in three phases over the next two years. When the ECFA takes effect, which is expected to be towards the end of this year once both sides have completed their internal procedures, the early harvest lists will allow the 539 items on Taiwan's list, amounting to around US$13.8 billion in exports per year, to receive zero tariff treatment within the next two years, while Chinese exporters will get a reciprocal deal on 267 items representing some US$2.9 billion in exports per year. The real value has yet to be determined. While heavy industrial items such as iron and steel from Taiwan will have easier access to China's market, these are industries which are now being downsized in China and so it suits Beijing to allow entry of these items. On the other hand, high tech items such as flat panels, machine tools and inputs to solar power generation have not been included. China has embarked on an industrial upgrading strategy which will see it in the future competing with Taiwan in these high-end items and their exclusion from the early-harvest list will force Taiwanese companies to shift some of their production to the mainland of China. In short, at first sight it appears that the immediate benefits are slanted in Taiwan's favour while the longer-term benefits accrue to China.

Nevertheless despite the reservations in some quarters, the general mood among economic analysts is upbeat. A number of institutions and think tanks have once again upgraded their economic outlook for Taiwan over the immediate term. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is now forecasting GDP to grow by 7.7 percent this year (up from the April estimate of 6.5 percent). The local Chung-Hua Institute of Economic Research is now forecasting 6.94 percent (up from 4.99 percent). With early harvest provisions not expected to kick-in until 2011, the immediate reason for better than expected GDP growth is attributed to better than expected export orders (Export orders for June totalled US$34.22 billion and analysts predict orders could reach a record-breaking US$400 billion for the whole year) and improved domestic consumption.

Domestic investment is also recovering. CIER expects domestic investment to increase 15.79 percent for the full year, its highest level since 1992, with private investment expanding 22 percent, compared with a contraction of 19.38 percent last year. 

Unemployment, inched up slightly in June to 5.16 percent (seasonally adjusted 5.2 percent) on the strength of new graduates entering the workforce. For the first half of 2010, unemployment averaged 5.47 percent, down 0.26 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Most analysts are forecasting a steady drop in the unemployment rate as the employment generation effects from closer cross-strait ties and the government's various initiatives to attract foreign investment. take hold. The general consensus among the various agencies is that the jobless rate will fall below five percent by the end of the year.

Barring unforeseen events, the general expectation is that now that China has the deal it has been wanting with Taiwan, the pressure will be lifted for a period to win over Taiwanese hearts and minds and ensure the re-election of President Ma Ying-jeou and his KMT administration in 2012. While both sides have emphasized that the EFCA is an economic agreement, the political ramifications are evident for all to see. Taiwanese vote for the most part with their hip pockets and just as President Ma's popularity plummeted with the onset of the global financial and economic crisis, it could just as easily rebound as the economy recovers – and that appears to be precisely what is happening. Recent telephone polls conducted by the Cabinet Research Office have shown that Ma's overall approval rating now stands at 46.8 percent and that 68.3 percent of voters approve of his efforts to approve cross-straits ties. These numbers need to be seen against the backdrop of another independent survey which showed that 69.9 percent remained against unification with China notwithstanding the signing of the ECFA. This was the highest figure recorded since February 2006. Tellingly, even among government supporters, 60 percent were opposed to unification with China and only 30.6 percent supported unification.

Clearly Mr. Ma and his team remain where they have been for some time now – between a rock and a hard place.

The different faces of corruption

Manila, 23 July 2010: An opinion survey conducted in late June by Philippine pollster, Social Weather Stations, shortly before the inauguration of President Beningno Aquino (on 30 June) showed an approval rating of no less that 88 percent. Clearly the country has high expectations of his presidency. What surprised many was that the incoming vice-president, former Makati City mayor, Jejomar Binay scored almost as high at 77 per cent. Binay, it may be recalled was running on a separate ticket and was allied with former president, Josef Estrada.

Binay is a controversial figure in many quarters, while successfully running the premier business hub in the Philippines for many years, he and his family has in the past been accused of corruption, of rigging votes and stealing taxpayer funds (not to mention the alleged mistress). For a period, and in order to keep control of Makati within the family; his wife replaced him as the mayor after his initial two terms had expired. Other family members run a development company that has an uncanny habit of bagging many Makati construction projects. Yet none of this appeared to matter in the eyes of voters.

Respected Filipino columnist, Conrad de Quiros, writing in one of the country's leading newspapers recently gave an interesting interpretation of the high marks given both Aquino and Binay. He noted that the public view of corruption had less to do with stealing money which has been a common feature of politicians across several presidencies and is certainly not confined to the Philippines; rather it had to do with public revulsion at the manner in which former President Arroyo and her clique stole not only the vote, but debased society's democratic values and its institutions, destroyed lives (often through summary execution of journalists and those opposed to her) and, in his words "the theft of decency." He went on to note that, aside from the Arroyo presidency, that kind of corruption was evident only during the Marcos years:

They trust, and expect, the two leaders who have fought GMA to undo her rule, bring justice to this country, and stand the world back on its feet by punishing the guilty and rewarding the innocent. They trust and expect the two leaders who have fought GMA to run after those who helped her trash everything this country holds sacred, wrench this country from its moral moorings, plunge this country into a pit beyond the pale of the very word "corruption."

Those are strong words but represent as good a summation of the Arroyo legacy as any. People do not expect President Aquino to be a miracle worker; they do expect him and his government to restore a semblance of order in society. Binay is trusted and respected because as mayor of Makati he stood firm against Arroyo and because – despite the allegations made against him – Makati was a modern, efficient and well-run city.

Yet Gloria Arroyo and her ilk refuse to fade into history. Rather, with the Filipino Congress due to reconvene in late July, the former president appears to be engineering a new power base there. Now the representative of the electorate district of Pampanga she has already announced she will seek the speakership and a move to change the system of government from a presidential to a parliamentary system – which would effectively put her back in control. She has entered Congress by winning the seat formerly held by her son Mikey Arroyo. Yet Mikey remains in Congress as a representative of the party-list group Ang Galing Pinoy, which supposedly represents the marginalized group of security guards and tricycle drivers. It appears that COMELEC has issued contradictory decisions regarding who can represent such groups.

Introduced in 1995 through Republic Act, 7941, the party-list introduced a system of proportionate representation whereby voters are given two votes for their congressional representatives; the first vote is for a district representative. The second vote is for a national party-list representative in which the voter selects a party rather than an individual and on a nationwide basis. Twenty percent of all Congressional seats are reserved for party list candidates as a means of providing representation to marginalized and under-represented sections of society. However, unsurprisingly under the Arroyo watch, even this system became debased with wealthy friends of the former president nominating themselves to represent marginalized voters. And with others from this group making the decisions in COMELEC as to who is in and who is out, and with a tame High Court (all members of which were personally selected by Arroyo), even this system has been totally debased.

Prosecuting those who corrupted the entire system is not going to be easy in such an environment and while Filipinos expect the former administration to be held to account for its excesses, the danger is that the country may once again be plunged into political turmoil as a result. Philippine ombudsman, Merciditas Gutierrez, a friend of the former First Gentleman who was roundly criticized for shielding friends and relatives of the Arroyo family from investigation during the former administration has let it be known publicly that she has no intention of standing down. Arroyo it seems has covered all bases.

And so while the focus of the incoming administration needs to be on reforming the economy, creating investment and jobs that will finally bring down the appalling rate of poverty in the country, much of the focus will be on the fancy footwork needed to thwart Arroyo's plans of returning to "business as usual."

The economy is expected to do relatively well this year as the worst of the recent global financial and economic crisis recedes. The Manila-based Asian Development Bank has raised its growth forecast for the Philippines for 2010 to 5 percent from an earlier 3.8 percent. While raising the 2010 outlook it has kept the 2011 forecast steady at 4.6 percent. For the entire Developing Asia, ADB now forecasts a 7.9 percent rise this year (earlier 7.5 percent) and for Emerging East Asia, 8.1 percent (7.7 percent).

While at face value this appears to be a pleasing result, the macroeconomic number hides some serious problems that need to be addressed as a matter of urgency. First among these is the budget deficit which since its low of PhP12 billion in 2007 has been creeping up again. The deficit rose to PhP68 billion in 2008 and to PhP299 billion in 2009 due in part to the stimulus package introduced by the government at the time of the financial and economic crisis (and to counter the impact of two strong typhoons, Ondoy and Pepeng, that wreaked havoc in Luzon in September/October of that year). But the real worry is that for the first half of this present year, largely as a result of overspending ahead of the election, the deficit has climbed to PhP196.7 billion. This is 35.5 percent higher than the target of PhP145.2 billion for the period. As a result the target deficit for the year as a whole has been increased to PhP340 billion. This represents around four percent of GDP. It has also been revealed that ahead of the May elections, the Arroyo administration realigned a French government loan of 150 million euros or roughly PhP8.9 billion intended for climate change mitigation, to plug the budget deficit.

Incoming Finance Secretary, Cesar Purisima, has vowed to halve the budget deficit by 2013. This will be done by targeting tax evaders rather than increasing the burden on existing tax payers.

To this effort might be added that of enticing greater direct foreign investment into the country. In recent years, FDI into the Philippines has been among the lowest in Asia, especially when considered on a per capita basis. According to the Central Bank, net equity infusion in the first four months of 2010 amounted to a paltry $57 million which was 91 percent lower year-on-year than in 2009. Admittedly the 2009 base year was high because of a foreign acquisition.

Foreign investment is desperately needed to create new jobs. While unemployment dipped slightly in 2009 on the strength of government stimulus spending, as that runs its course unemployment is again creeping upward. The employment data shows that much of the job creation in recent years has been in intermittent or part-time employment rather than full-time wage earning opportunities. This has taken the edge off claims that the (previous) government had brought down unemployment. Even the business process outsourcing sector claims that the talent pool has been all but exhausted.

Underemployment of course remains at around the 20 percent mark and there has been a continued drift to the informal sector as jobs in manufacturing have dried up. Informal employment – much of it self-employment – now accounts for more than 70 percent of the workforce; after all the very poor cannot afford to be without some form of work. The middle class – that sector that can afford it – sends family members overseas. For the very poor, the option is street vending or household service – or a drift into illicit occupations such as the sex trade.

The picture is not a pleasant one. The saving feature is that the Philippines now has an administration that cares.